Several years ago all the rage in business books was Sun Tzu’s “The Art of Warfare." Many read the 18 chapters of the book, but few actually delved into a thorough analysis, or, more appropriately, knew how to begin an analysis.

Let’s talk about several methodologies.

In 1979 Michael E. Porter of the Harvard Business School developed a framework for the industry analysis and business strategy development called the “The Five Forces”:

1. The threat of substitute products or services
2. The threat of the entry of new competitors
3. The intensity of competitive rivalry
4. The bargaining power of customers (buyers)
5. The bargaining power of suppliers

Now, let’s dive into some detail. You manufacture a variety of products that compete with other companies. Let’s pretend that you are an end mill manufacturer.

You make carbide end mills as a primary product and you have an offering of carbide burrs. Is the "burrs" product group going to be competitive?

If you are using a distribution channel, the distributors are going to take the path of least resistance no matter what you do.  You may have a distributor owner telling you “We like you and we want to promote ALL of your products” but in reality, when an inside salesperson gets an order from a customer with A, C, D, E, F and G burrs on his purchase order it’s just easier to place that order with ONE vendor instead of two (and split the order) regardless of what the boss says.

So you’ll have some decisions to make:
Do you expand the offering so it is more complete?  
​Do you just keep the offering where it is at right now?
Are you willing to accept the fact that you will lose some orders within your channel if you don't expand?

At the outset you might not know.  But, that’s not important.  What’s important is that you MAKE A PLAN.  Then take the plan to the field.  See what feedback you get and ADJUST TO MEET THE MARKET NEEDS.

There are two very good concepts you should understand in your planning process.  OODA Loops and PDCA.  I’ll take a minute and explain the basics:

OODA
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act is a concept originally applied to the combat operations process, often at the strategic level in military operations. It is now also often applied to understand commercial operations and learning processes. The concept was developed by USAF  Colonel John Boyd.  In the fast paced world of business competition it’s a good idea to understand how fighter pilots are trained.

Boyd developed the OODA loop concept to explain how to direct one’s energies to defeat an adversary and survive. Boyd emphasized that “the loop” is actually a set of interacting loops that are to be kept in continuous operation during combat. He also indicated that the phase of the battle has an important bearing on the ideal allocation of one’s energies.  Basicially it comes down to this:
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When the enemy aircraft comes into radar contact, more direct information about the speed, size, and maneuverability, of the enemy plane becomes available; unfolding circumstances take priority over radio chatter. A first decision is made based on the available information so far: the pilot decides to “get into the sun” above his opponent, and acts by applying control inputs to climb. Back to observation: is the attacker reacting to the change of altitude? Then to orient: is the enemy reacting characteristically, or perhaps acting like a noncombatant? Is his plane exhibiting better-than-expected performance?

PDCA
Plan, Do, Check, Act is an iterative four-step problem-solving process typically used in business process improvement. It is also known as the Deming cycle

• PLAN – Establish the objectives and processes necessary to deliver results in accordance with the expected output. By making the expected output the focus, it differs from other techniques in that the completeness and accuracy of the specification is also part of the improvement.
• DO – Implement the new processes. Often on a small scale if possible.
• CHECK – Measure the new processes and compare the results against the expected results to ascertain any differences.
• ACT – Analyze the differences to determine their cause. Each will be part of either one or more of the P-D-C-A steps. Determine where to apply changes that will include improvement. When a pass through these four steps does not result in the need to improve, refine the scope to which PDCA is applied until there is a plan that involves improvement.

Once again, the most important point in all of this is ADAPTION.

Now put on your thinking cap for a minute. Let’s pretend that you make burrs as a ‘convenience’ to some customers.  You’ve discovered that you’ve really been able to cut down your production cost.  So much so that you make a very healthy margin on the ones you do sell.

You have a competitor who started off making burrs.  It’s their core competency.  It’s where they got where they are and NOW they are is starting to make end mills: your core competency. What do you do?
Use the loops: Do the ACT part!

One possibility is that you offer a low price volume promo to your distributors in certain markets to get them promoting your burrs.  Target THEIR core competency!  Go after them where is hurts. Go after them in their strongest market.  BUT, make it a feint: While they are busy trying to keep marketshare, you can expand your business in your core markets.

Don’t be afraid of any of the processes listed.  I’ve heard manufacturers say “I’m just a small company, that stuff is for big companies”  My response is generally along the lines of “How do you think those companies got to be big companies?”
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Finally, take a look at some other process’ that are out there.  If you can use an already created template to do the reviews and analysis then grab them and utilize them.  The Hoshin Strategic Planning process is a good starting point.

The Evolution of a Field Sales Force
Business starts with a product or idea, someone goes out and sells something to someone near them. More customers are found and more is sold, typically, from the manufacturer directly to the end-user.
At some point the manufacturer of the product comes to their first crux point: One of two courses must be chosen:
1. Develop a Direct Sales Force
2. Develop a Sales Channel Strategy

Within these choices there can be any number of hybrid strategies:

• A direct sales force that calls directly on end-users.
• A direct sales force that calls on industrial distributors and sells through them.
• A direct sales force that calls on “bigger” end-users directly and sells through a distribution channel.
• An independent manufacturer’s agent network that does any of the above already listed.
• Direct sales to industrial distributors.
• The list can go on based upon individual companies and territories.

Generally, there are exceptions to every rule or SOP and, when pressed, all manufacturers will admit to “grandfathered” exceptions.

RULE #1: EVERYTHING in your forecasting should be about developing MARKETSHARE. 

Let’s jump back into some big picture stuff.

The reason for this is so that you can adequately gage performance in key market areas. If you gage how your territories are performing based only upon sales volume you will not know who is performing up to par and who is not performing.

If one market has a total market potential of $100M and another has only $4M and both territories are generating the exact same sales volume the territories are not equal. But how do you determine where the markets area? How big are they? How should you separate your territories?

I’m sure you’ve heard "Don't try to eat the whole elephant" but instead taking it one bite at a time. But where to start? Where is the target market for your products?

Operations Planning Model
Think about it: If someone is planning something where lives are at stake they are probably going a lot deeper than any marketing campaign you can envision. If you want a ready-made template for planning your marketing Campaign then take a look at The Campaign Planning Handbook from the US Army War College
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One of the first things at the tactical level that the military asks is “What is the terrain?” They pull out a map.

Under the standards, the county (or counties) in which at least 50 percent of the population resides within urban areas of 10,000 or more population, or that contain at least 5,000 people residing within a single urban area of 10,000 or more population, is identified as a “central county” (counties). Additional “outlying counties” are included in the CBSA if they meet specified requirements of commuting to or from the central counties. Counties or equivalent entities form the geographic “building blocks” for metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States and Puerto Rico.

If specified criteria are met, a metropolitan statistical area containing a single core with a population of 2.5 million or more may be subdivided to form smaller groupings of counties referred to as “metropolitan divisions.”
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As of 2000, there are 362 metropolitan statistical areas and 560 micropolitan statistical areas in the United States. In addition, there are 8 metropolitan statistical areas and 5 micropolitan statistical areas. You can find a much more detailed map from this US Census Bureau link that you can print out

"Standards for Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice." Office of Management and Budget. Federal Register. 27 December 2000.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. "Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Definitions." 19 January 2006. Available from http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metrodef.html. Retrieved on 17 April 2006.

Core-Based Statistical Area
A CBSA is one or more counties with an urbanized cluster of at least 10,000 people. The area as a whole is defined by the interaction between the core and the outlying areas. This interaction, measured by commuting, means that at least 25 percent of people in outlying areas are working in the core. The CBSA is a generic definition of MICROs and MSAs, the difference being core population size.

Micropolitan Statistical Areas
A MICRO is simply a small CBSA, i.e., a county or counties with an urbanized core of 10,000 but fewer than 50,000 in population. Outlying areas included are, again, defined by commuting patterns. As of November 2004, according to the Census Bureau, there were 575 MICROs in the U.S. and five in Puerto Rico.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas
An MSA has an urbanized core of minimally 50,000 population and includes outlying areas determined by commuting measures. In 2004, the U.S. had 361 MSAs and Puerto Rico eight.